Climate change is here - the world has already warmed 1°C since preindustrial levels.
Current emission reduction pledges would see global warming reach 2.5 to 3.1 degrees Celcius this century. While alignment with the Paris Accord could keep warming below 2 degrees, or ideally 1.5 degrees, those chances are currently 5% and 1%, respectively.
These climate projections will have deep implications for sensitive ecosystems and dependent economies.
Nature conservation, people and businesses now increasingly need to embrace strategies of climate adaptation to reduce and manage impacts of unavoidable climate change (moderate or severe) on nature, people, industries and economies.
One of ES5’s top priorities is to support such adaptation in the smartest way possible. We do this by working with you to identify adaptive pathways (route options among multiple alternatives) that have the highest likelihood of delivering benefits to nature and people, most cost-effectively, and safely.
Our approach combines principles from business strategy, game theory and emergency medicine.
Why business strategy?
Climate change is an environmental downturn. To survive the downturn, or ideally come out stronger, strategy choices need to consider prioritisation of ecosystem services, projected benefits, costs, and risks. Planning and strategic timing and execution will determine success.
Why game theory?
Because global nature conservation has at least two key groups of decision-makers: (1) the global community of carbon emitters affecting the climate path (the depth of the downturn), and (2) local and regional managers, policymakers and businesses adapting to climate change.
The outcomes of the choices of both groups of decision-makers are uncertain. We use game theory because it allows us to explore ideal solutions where carbon mitigation helps local and regional conservation efforts, as well as prepare plans B and C for conservation under more severe and worst-case climate change.
Why emergency medicine?
As climate change takes hold - placing growing pressure on climate-sensitive ecosystems, people and industries – the most effective adaptation solution will be the one that strikes the optimal balance between building resilience and making informed trade-offs. This is not unlike the doctor and the triage nurse seeking to save as many patients as possible with limited resources and time available.
This novel approach is a game-changer for three reasons.
First, our approach places the decision-maker ahead of the curve.
Second, it helps score strategy options against clear performance criteria, including contentious ones.
Third, it helps navigate multiple risks and uncertainties and provide clarity of options.
If you need some help with adaptation support, let's have a chat.