Conservation problems with multiple objectives and values are complex.
Such complexity is not an impediment to decision making if the right approach is used.
Our approach is to embrace complexity by producing agreed conceptual models of the system with you and key stakeholders.
This eliminates black boxes and everyone has a say in what the values and model components are.
We then tackle uncertainty head-on. Not by excluding it, but by understanding what uncertainty is within our control and what is not, and what uncertainty is critical for decision making.
With a handle on the system (the model) and an understanding of uncertainty, we have insight into risks.
We use probabilistic models to quantify multiple risks using a transparent white-box approach. Our models and analyses are designed to be interactive and we work with you to build strategies that help you minimise and manage risks.
This is where we demonstrate expertise in structured decision analyses.
Build in scenario analyses and simulations.
Infographic: conceptual model with linked social ecological system (environment, ecosystems, people and economy). Link to the qualitative model behind, link to scenario analysis behind?
Example problem and scenario such as
1. A bay area threatened by sea-level rise
2. coastal infrastructure at increasing risk from storm damage
3. Reefs are damaged and the fish are in decline
4. Proposed breakwater solutions are ugly and expensive and will damage tourism and not attract fishing and recreation
If you need help navigating complexity, let's chat.