Navigating the path to safe and effective climate adaptation to prevent unprecedented loss.
Using customised modelling for waste-free reef monitoring.
They're not impediments to good decision making if the right approach is used.
Taking a leaf from business strategy, game theory and emergency medicine.
To be relevant it needs to resolve up to five dimensions: environmental, ecological, economic, social and cultural.
Heath is well-defined for people, but we need a health assessment system for social-ecological systems.
Apr 24th, 2020
If we can put a man on the Moon, we can save the Great Barrier Reef
Paul Hardisty, Australian Institute of Marine Science; Christian Roth, CSIRO; Damien Burrows, James Cook University; David Mead, Australian Institute of Marine Science; Ken Anthony, Australian Institute of Marine Science; Line K Bay, Australian Institute of Marine Science; Mark Gibbs, Queensland University of Technology, and Peter J Mumby, The University of Queensland
Restoring the reef represents one of the most significant science and technology challenges in the history of nature conservation.
Oct 10th, 2017
The Great Barrier Reef can repair itself, with a little help from science
Ken Anthony, Australian Institute of Marine Science; Britta Schaffelke, Australian Institute of Marine Science; Line K Bay, Australian Institute of Marine Science, and Madeleine van Oppen, Australian Institute of Marine Science
Corals on the Great Barrier Reef that are tolerant to warmer waters can be used to help repair other parts of the reef damaged by recent coral bleaching events.
Image: Dmitry Brant, via Wikimedia Commons
N Stoeckl, S Condie, K Anthony
Ecosystem Services 51, 2021
Abstract: Climate change is impacting numerous natural world heritage sites – the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) being just one. There are calls for interventions to help sustain reef values in the face of climate change and while there are numerous techniques for assessing impacts on non-market values, most struggle to generate robust estimates for large and complex systems. This complicates the assessment of potential benefits of reef interventions. Focusing on corals in the GBR, we develop and apply a systematic, evaluative framework that combines insights from a coral-reef simulation model with those from research on reef-related ecosystem services (ES). We estimate the market and non-market benefits of complete control of coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS) and global climate mitigation. By comparing the present value of ES with and without interventions, we can assess their potential benefits: between $5b …
KRN Anthony, KJ Helmstedt, LK Bay, P Fidelman, KE Hussey, ...
Nature ecology & evolution 1 (10), 1420-1422, 2020
Abstract: Climate change is impacting coral reefs now. Recent pan-tropical bleaching events driven by unprecedented global heat waves have shifted the playing field for coral reef management and policy. While best-practice conventional management remains essential, it may no longer be enough to sustain coral reefs under continued climate change. Nor will climate change mitigation be sufficient on its own. Committed warming and projected reef decline means solutions must involve a portfolio of mitigation, best-practice conventional management and coordinated restoration and adaptation measures involving new and perhaps radical interventions, including local and regional cooling and shading, assisted coral evolution, assisted gene flow, and measures to support and enhance coral recruitment. We propose that proactive research and development to expand the reef management toolbox fast but safely, combined with expedient trialling of promising interventions is now urgently needed, whatever emissions trajectory the world follows. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of embracing new interventions in a race against time, including their risks and uncertainties. Ultimately, solutions to the climate challenge for coral reefs will require consideration of what society wants, what can be achieved technically and economically, and what opportunities we have for action in a rapidly closing window. Finding solutions that work for coral reefs and people will require exceptional levels of coordination of science, management and policy, and open engagement with society. It will also require compromise because reefs will change under climate …
K Wolfe, K Anthony, RC Babcock, L Bay, DG Bourne, D Burrows, M Byrne, ...
Oceanography and Marine Biology, 2020
Abstract: Ecosystem-based management on coral reefs has historically focused on biodiversity conservation through the establishment of marine reserves, but it is increasingly recognised that a subset of species can be key to the maintenance of ecosystem processes and functioning. Specific provisions for these key taxa are essential to biodiversity conservation and resilience-based adaptive management. While a wealth of literature addresses ecosystem functioning on coral reefs, available information covers only a subset of specific taxa, ecological processes and environmental stressors. What is lacking is a comparative assessment across the diverse range of coral reef species to synthesise available knowledge to inform science and management. Here we employed expert elicitation coupled with a literature review to generate the first comprehensive assessment of 70 taxonomically diverse and functionally distinct coral reef species from microbes to top predators to summarise reef functioning. Although our synthesis is largely through the lens of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, a particularly data-rich system, it is relevant to coral reefs in general. We use this assessment to evaluate which taxa drive processes that maintain a healthy reef, and whether or not management of these taxa is considered a priority (i.e. are they vulnerable?) or is feasible (i.e. can they be managed?). Scientific certainty was scored to weight our recommendations, particularly when certainty was low. We use five case studies to highlight critical gaps in knowledge that limit our understanding of ecosystem functioning. To inform the development of novel management strategies …
Ocean Studies Board, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
National Academies Press, 2019
Abstract: Coral reef declines have been recorded for all major tropical ocean basins since the 1980s, averaging approximately 30-50% reductions in reef cover globally. These losses are a result of numerous problems, including habitat destruction, pollution, overfishing, disease, and climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions and the associated increases in ocean temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have been implicated in increased reports of coral bleaching, disease outbreaks, and ocean acidification (OA). For the hundreds of millions of people who depend on reefs for food or livelihoods, the thousands of communities that depend on reefs for wave protection, the people whose cultural practices are tied to reef resources, and the many economies that depend on reefs for fisheries or tourism, the health and maintenance of this major global ecosystem is crucial. A growing body of research on coral physiology, ecology, molecular biology, and responses to stress has revealed potential tools to increase coral resilience. Some of this knowledge is poised to provide practical interventions in the short-term, whereas other discoveries are poised to facilitate research that may later open the doors to additional interventions. A Research Review of Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs reviews the state of science on genetic, ecological, and environmental interventions meant to enhance the persistence and resilience of coral reefs. The complex nature of corals and their associated microbiome lends itself to a wide range of possible approaches. This first report provides a summary of currently available …
K Anthony, LK Bay, R Costanza, J Firn, J Gunn, P Harrison, A Heyward, ...
Nature Ecology & Evolution 1 (10), 2017
Abstract: Since 2014, coral reefs worldwide have been subjected to the most extensive, prolonged and damaging heatwave in recorded history 1. Large sections of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) bleached in response to heat stress in 2016 and 2017—the first back-to-back events on record. Such severe coral bleaching results in widespread loss of reef habitat and biodiversity. Globally, we are facing catastrophic decline of these ecosystems, which sustain services valued at around $ US10 trillion per year 2, are home to over a million species 3, and feed and support the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people 4.
Model predictions indicate that mass coral bleaching could become the new norm by 2050 (ref. 5). Critically, even if global warming can be kept within 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, shallow tropical seas would warm at least 0.4 C in the coming decades, triggering frequent bleaching of the most sensitive …
KRN Anthony, DI Kline, G Diaz-Pulido, S Dove, O Hoegh-Guldberg
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2008
Abstract: Ocean acidification represents a key threat to coral reefs by reducing the calcification rate of framework builders. In addition, acidification is likely to affect the relationship between corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellates and the productivity of this association. However, little is known about how acidification impacts on the physiology of reef builders and how acidification interacts with warming. Here, we report on an 8-week study that compared bleaching, productivity, and calcification responses of crustose coralline algae (CCA) and branching (Acropora) and massive (Porites) coral species in response to acidification and warming. Using a 30-tank experimental system, we manipulated CO2 levels to simulate doubling and three- to fourfold increases [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projection categories IV and VI] relative to present-day levels under cool and warm scenarios. Results indicated …
KRN Anthony, JA Maynard, G DIAZ‐PULIDO, PJ Mumby, PA Marshall, ...
Global Change Biology, 2011
Abstract: Ocean warming and acidification from increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 represent major global threats to coral reefs, and are in many regions exacerbated by local‐scale disturbances such as overfishing and nutrient enrichment. Our understanding of global threats and local‐scale disturbances on reefs is growing, but their relative contribution to reef resilience and vulnerability in the future is unclear. Here, we analyse quantitatively how different combinations of CO2 and fishing pressure on herbivores will affect the ecological resilience of a simplified benthic reef community, as defined by its capacity to maintain and recover to coral‐dominated states. We use a dynamic community model integrated with the growth and mortality responses for branching corals (Acropora) and fleshy macroalgae (Lobophora). We operationalize the resilience framework by parameterizing the response function for coral growth …
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“Conservation is a state of harmony between men and land .”